Daily Brief from Bali - Thursday, 6 December

Ambition:
The Bali road map cannot lead to nowhere but must take aim at an emission reduction target that is congruent with what science tells us needs to happen: ambitious emission reduction targets for industrialized countries, stating that peak and decline of global CO2 emissions should happen well before 2020, and that the world should keep well below the danger threshold of 2°C warming (above pre-industrial level).

All those are somewhere on the table but the dots have not quite been connected. Some countries speak about the 25-40% reduction target by 2020, others studiously avoid it. Some say it should be under the Convention track, some say it should be under Kyoto. Those ranges apply to industrialized countries: but where does the global picture come in is still unclear.


What is happening now:
Countries have been changing positions in the negotiations very quickly. Australia's Kyoto ratification is the most pronounced change, Iceland adopted the 2°C language one or two days ago, and even the Canadian environment minister has supported this target openly - an
astounding feat.

Selected building Blocks

Adaptation: We are not yet sure what countries really are seeking on adaptation. What we need at this stage is a paragraph to be part of the Mandate that can make a work programme or similar operational for adaptation.
The discussion about the implementation of the Adaptation Fund is continuing - a number of countries came out in favour of GEF but a core of developing countries continues to hold out against it. Brazil has come out with a clear refusal to endorse the GEF. G77 have presented a
draft decision for operationalizing the Adaptation Fund. However, this may be a decision that goes against the GEF. Objections to the GEF are that it is inaccessible, bureaucratic, and too expensive.

REDD: It seems that draft decision text is okay for many countries (comfortable). Some countries push to widen the REDD agenda by including agriculture and other land use issues - something that WWF rejects as unworkable - we want to keep REDD slim and ensure adequate funding.
There is significant support for the World Bank partnership initiative, and clear interest to provide early funding for pilot projects.

Carbon markets: The discussion is mostly limited to technical issues as described in the last update. The CDM beyond 2012 is still totally open. Sectoral approaches could be under the CDM but even this is unclear. The G77 are talking about policies and measures for sustainable development. Best outcome from today's viewpoint - enlarge scope, sectoral CDM operational, be a part of future negotiation. That should be in mandate decision.

Technology Transfer: Yesterday a stand-off in SBI on TT cost three hours of stalled negotiations. The conflict looks like a legal argument but is in fact political. SBI has established a contact group about TT moving into SBI.
The Chinese proposed a Technology Cooperation Platform - bringing together governments and private actors. An interesting move as it shows that the Chinese are flexible and pragmatic in an issue that has their highest attention.

Response measures: This subject was originally created because OPEC - led by Saudi Arabia
- insisted on being compensated by oil consuming countries for a potential loss of income through fuel switch and energy saving measures. Now the subject is moving beyond the Saudis: unintended consequences are getting a wider audience - e.g. coal in South Africa and won't be an export good anymore. Products form organic farming from Thailand that might not be exported to Europe because of emissions.

Finance and trade ministers meeting
This weekend, a meeting of finance and a meeting of trade ministers are
scheduled to take place outside of the UN Conference.

Trade Ministers will talk about the US and EU proposal to work on tax
barriers on clean technology. Finance Ministers will also report on this
to the COP.